TiVo and ReplayTV have had the advantage of early entry into the field. In fact, TiVo's early entry has given it name recognition and association with the device itself: many people know DVRs as "TiVo's," just like portable stereo units are still called "walkmans" by many people today.

However, despite these advantages, JupiterResearch predicts that the market share of standalone and PC-based DVRs will erode in favor of DVRs tied to cable and satellite service. While standalone models currently comprise 39% of the online household market, by 2009 they will account for only 20%, and cable/satellite DVRs will grow from 61% in 2004 to 80% of this market in 2009.

A recent study by Parks Associates indicates that overall consumer intent to buy a DVR is still at a relatively low level, and actual ownership is even lower. As cable and satellite providers begin to push their DVRs, many consumers who might be unaware of TiVo or ReplayTV, or who are aware but have not considered buying one, will discover DVRs through their cable or satellite provider (in the same way many people have begun using video-on-demand because it is included in their cable or satellite package). In addition, the attractiveness of the bundling and seamless integration of these DVRs will entice consumers who are considering TiVo and others away from buying a standalone product.

In the face of these changes, standalone players will need to be content to live on as niche devices or find other ways to expand. TiVo, for one, seems to have realized this: in September it formed a partnership with NetFlix to develop a service that will deliver movies to consumers through the Internet. In addition, as eMarketer analyst Ben Macklin notes in the US Digital TV report, "It seems clear from TiVo's recent announcements that CEO Mike Ramsay is looking to focus TiVo in other areas that won't necessitate either cable or satellite partnerships, namely broadband Internet. TiVo announced it wants to expand the range of TiVo services to include satellite radio, digital photo editing and the ability to surf the Internet. It also recently announced a 'video-to-go' service allowing subscribers to transfer recorded shows to other devices, including laptops and PCs, so they could watch them anywhere."